One-observation-ahead residuals. Total number of observations: 231 [1] 231 [1] 230 [1] 229 [1] 228 [1] 227 [1] 226 [1] 225 [1] 224 [1] 223 [1] 222 [1] 221 [1] 220 [1] 219 [1] 218 [1] 217 [1] 216 [1] 215 [1] 214 [1] 213 [1] 212 [1] 211 [1] 210 [1] 209 [1] 208 [1] 207 [1] 206 [1] 205 [1] 204 [1] 203 [1] 202 [1] 201 [1] 200 [1] 199 [1] 198 [1] 197 [1] 196 [1] 195 [1] 194 [1] 193 [1] 192 [1] 191 [1] 190 [1] 189 [1] 188 [1] 187 [1] 186 [1] 185 [1] 184 [1] 183 [1] 182 [1] 181 [1] 180 [1] 179 [1] 178 [1] 177 [1] 176 [1] 175 [1] 174 [1] 173 [1] 172 [1] 171 [1] 170 [1] 169 [1] 168 [1] 167 [1] 166 [1] 165 [1] 164 [1] 163 [1] 162 [1] 161 [1] 160 [1] 159 [1] 158 [1] 157 [1] 156 [1] 155 [1] 154 [1] 153 [1] 152 [1] 151 [1] 150 [1] 149 [1] 148 [1] 147 [1] 146 [1] 145 [1] 144 [1] 143 [1] 142 [1] 141 [1] 140 [1] 139 [1] 138 [1] 137 [1] 136 [1] 135 [1] 134 [1] 133 [1] 132 [1] 131 [1] 130 [1] 129 [1] 128 [1] 127 [1] 126 [1] 125 [1] 124 [1] 123 [1] 122 [1] 121 [1] 120 [1] 119 [1] 118 [1] 117 [1] 116 [1] 115 [1] 114 [1] 113 [1] 112 [1] 111 [1] 110 [1] 109 [1] 108 [1] 107 [1] 106 [1] 105 [1] 104 [1] 103 [1] 102 [1] 101 [1] 100 [1] 99 [1] 98 [1] 97 [1] 96 [1] 95 [1] 94 [1] 93 [1] 92 [1] 91 [1] 90 [1] 89 [1] 88 [1] 87 [1] 86 [1] 85 [1] 84 [1] 83 [1] 82 [1] 81 [1] 80 [1] 79 [1] 78 [1] 77 [1] 76 [1] 75 [1] 74 [1] 73 [1] 72 [1] 71 [1] 70 [1] 69 [1] 68 [1] 67 [1] 66 [1] 65 [1] 64 [1] 63 [1] 62 [1] 61 [1] 60 [1] 59 [1] 58 [1] 57 [1] 56 [1] 55 [1] 54 [1] 53 [1] 52 [1] 51 [1] 50 [1] 49 [1] 48 [1] 47 [1] 46 [1] 45 [1] 44 [1] 43 [1] 42 [1] 41 [1] 40 [1] 39 [1] 38 [1] 37 [1] 36 [1] 35 [1] 34 [1] 33 [1] 32 [1] 31 [1] 30 [1] 29 [1] 28 [1] 27 [1] 26 [1] 25 [1] 24 [1] 23 [1] 22 [1] 21 [1] 20 [1] 19 [1] 18 [1] 17 [1] 16 [1] 15 [1] 14 [1] 13 [1] 12 [1] 11 [1] 10 [1] 9 [1] 8 [1] 7 [1] 6 [1] 5 [1] 4 [1] 3 [1] 2 [1] 1 One-observation-ahead residuals. Done iter: 1 value: 98793.03 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525203 iter: 2 value: 1390.551 mgc: 1629.936 ustep: 0.03914994 iter: 3 value: 200.9704 mgc: 81.21067 ustep: 0.1979437 iter: 4 value: -233.5928 mgc: 16.00033 ustep: 0.4449641 iter: 5 value: -486.0049 mgc: 18.69172 ustep: 0.6670896 iter: 6 value: -567.3438 mgc: 16.38532 ustep: 0.8167739 iter: 7 value: -584.8004 mgc: 17.1544 ustep: 0.903765 iter: 8 value: -587.9232 mgc: 4.154432 ustep: 0.9506705 iter: 9 value: -588.3521 mgc: 3.997827 ustep: 0.9750258 iter: 10 value: -588.3616 mgc: 0.1839112 ustep: 0.9874352 iter: 11 value: -588.3616 mgc: 0.02742683 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.3616 mgc: 2.373461e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.3616 mgc: 1.121187e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.537098e-10 Matching hessian patterns... Done outer mgc: 2.09537e-09 iter: 1 value: 98793.02 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525203 iter: 2 value: 1390.506 mgc: 1629.932 ustep: 0.03914994 iter: 3 value: 200.942 mgc: 81.2121 ustep: 0.1979436 iter: 4 value: -233.6095 mgc: 15.99995 ustep: 0.4449641 iter: 5 value: -486.0143 mgc: 18.68356 ustep: 0.6670896 iter: 6 value: -567.3455 mgc: 16.3804 ustep: 0.8167738 iter: 7 value: -584.8034 mgc: 17.1621 ustep: 0.903765 iter: 8 value: -587.9262 mgc: 4.152445 ustep: 0.9506705 iter: 9 value: -588.355 mgc: 3.99798 ustep: 0.9750258 iter: 10 value: -588.3645 mgc: 0.1835677 ustep: 0.9874352 iter: 11 value: -588.3645 mgc: 0.02738128 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.3645 mgc: 2.366551e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.3645 mgc: 1.120089e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.531283e-10 outer mgc: 0.02636592 iter: 1 value: 98793.05 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525204 iter: 2 value: 1390.597 mgc: 1629.94 ustep: 0.03914995 iter: 3 value: 200.9989 mgc: 81.20925 ustep: 0.1979437 iter: 4 value: -233.5761 mgc: 16.00071 ustep: 0.4449641 iter: 5 value: -485.9954 mgc: 18.69987 ustep: 0.6670896 iter: 6 value: -567.3421 mgc: 16.39025 ustep: 0.8167739 iter: 7 value: -584.7973 mgc: 17.1467 ustep: 0.903765 iter: 8 value: -587.9202 mgc: 4.156419 ustep: 0.9506705 iter: 9 value: -588.3492 mgc: 3.99767 ustep: 0.9750258 iter: 10 value: -588.3587 mgc: 0.184255 ustep: 0.9874352 iter: 11 value: -588.3587 mgc: 0.0274724 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.3587 mgc: 2.380394e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.3587 mgc: 1.122287e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.541402e-10 outer mgc: 0.02634051 iter: 1 value: 98803.94 mgc: 4282.255 ustep: 0.001524986 iter: 2 value: 1388.592 mgc: 1627.782 ustep: 0.03914716 iter: 3 value: 200.1176 mgc: 81.2237 ustep: 0.1979366 iter: 4 value: -233.6284 mgc: 15.99305 ustep: 0.4449562 iter: 5 value: -485.7968 mgc: 18.63056 ustep: 0.6670837 iter: 6 value: -567.2081 mgc: 16.40738 ustep: 0.8167702 iter: 7 value: -584.6921 mgc: 17.13083 ustep: 0.903763 iter: 8 value: -587.826 mgc: 4.171666 ustep: 0.9506695 iter: 9 value: -588.2577 mgc: 4.010205 ustep: 0.9750253 iter: 10 value: -588.2673 mgc: 0.1853036 ustep: 0.9874349 iter: 11 value: -588.2673 mgc: 0.02798861 ustep: 0.9936982 iter: 12 value: -588.2673 mgc: 2.447121e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.2673 mgc: 1.133067e-07 ustep: 0.9984211 iter: 14 mgc: 8.635126e-10 outer mgc: 0.1333275 iter: 1 value: 98782.13 mgc: 4282.253 ustep: 0.001525421 iter: 2 value: 1392.515 mgc: 1632.097 ustep: 0.03915273 iter: 3 value: 201.8242 mgc: 81.19763 ustep: 0.1979507 iter: 4 value: -233.5578 mgc: 16.00761 ustep: 0.444972 iter: 5 value: -486.213 mgc: 18.75298 ustep: 0.6670955 iter: 6 value: -567.4794 mgc: 16.36312 ustep: 0.8167775 iter: 7 value: -584.9085 mgc: 17.17782 ustep: 0.9037671 iter: 8 value: -588.0203 mgc: 4.137299 ustep: 0.9506716 iter: 9 value: -588.4464 mgc: 3.985385 ustep: 0.9750264 iter: 10 value: -588.4557 mgc: 0.1825324 ustep: 0.9874355 iter: 11 value: -588.4558 mgc: 0.02687501 ustep: 0.9936985 iter: 12 value: -588.4558 mgc: 2.30223e-05 ustep: 0.9968446 iter: 13 value: -588.4558 mgc: 1.109436e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.435621e-10 outer mgc: 0.1334338 iter: 1 value: 98792.97 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525203 iter: 2 value: 1390.545 mgc: 1629.936 ustep: 0.03914994 iter: 3 value: 200.9776 mgc: 81.21075 ustep: 0.1979437 iter: 4 value: -233.5836 mgc: 16.00009 ustep: 0.4449641 iter: 5 value: -485.9941 mgc: 18.69089 ustep: 0.6670896 iter: 6 value: -567.3321 mgc: 16.38519 ustep: 0.8167739 iter: 7 value: -584.7887 mgc: 17.15422 ustep: 0.903765 iter: 8 value: -587.9116 mgc: 4.15451 ustep: 0.9506705 iter: 9 value: -588.3405 mgc: 3.997722 ustep: 0.9750258 iter: 10 value: -588.35 mgc: 0.1839114 ustep: 0.9874352 iter: 11 value: -588.35 mgc: 0.02743788 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.35 mgc: 2.375116e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.35 mgc: 1.121702e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.548219e-10 outer mgc: 0.00586224 iter: 1 value: 98793.1 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525203 iter: 2 value: 1390.557 mgc: 1629.936 ustep: 0.03914994 iter: 3 value: 200.9633 mgc: 81.2106 ustep: 0.1979437 iter: 4 value: -233.602 mgc: 16.00057 ustep: 0.4449641 iter: 5 value: -486.0156 mgc: 18.69254 ustep: 0.6670896 iter: 6 value: -567.3554 mgc: 16.38546 ustep: 0.8167739 iter: 7 value: -584.812 mgc: 17.15458 ustep: 0.903765 iter: 8 value: -587.9348 mgc: 4.154354 ustep: 0.9506705 iter: 9 value: -588.3637 mgc: 3.997932 ustep: 0.9750258 iter: 10 value: -588.3732 mgc: 0.183911 ustep: 0.9874352 iter: 11 value: -588.3732 mgc: 0.02741578 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.3732 mgc: 2.371807e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.3732 mgc: 1.120676e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.527634e-10 outer mgc: 0.005847247 iter: 1 value: 98791.24 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525122 iter: 2 value: 1390.325 mgc: 1629.503 ustep: 0.03914891 iter: 3 value: 201.0041 mgc: 80.91464 ustep: 0.197941 iter: 4 value: -233.4996 mgc: 15.90607 ustep: 0.4449612 iter: 5 value: -485.8795 mgc: 18.68892 ustep: 0.6670874 iter: 6 value: -567.2079 mgc: 16.35921 ustep: 0.8167725 iter: 7 value: -584.6504 mgc: 17.14937 ustep: 0.9037643 iter: 8 value: -587.7711 mgc: 4.160453 ustep: 0.9506701 iter: 9 value: -588.1993 mgc: 3.990867 ustep: 0.9750256 iter: 10 value: -588.2088 mgc: 0.184187 ustep: 0.9874351 iter: 11 value: -588.2088 mgc: 0.02746009 ustep: 0.9936983 iter: 12 value: -588.2088 mgc: 2.385868e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.2088 mgc: 1.121399e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.541913e-10 outer mgc: 0.02400759 iter: 1 value: 98794.82 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525284 iter: 2 value: 1390.782 mgc: 1630.37 ustep: 0.03915098 iter: 3 value: 200.9373 mgc: 81.50795 ustep: 0.1979463 iter: 4 value: -233.6858 mgc: 16.09504 ustep: 0.444967 iter: 5 value: -486.1301 mgc: 18.69442 ustep: 0.6670918 iter: 6 value: -567.4795 mgc: 16.41161 ustep: 0.8167752 iter: 7 value: -584.9504 mgc: 17.15941 ustep: 0.9037658 iter: 8 value: -588.0753 mgc: 4.14843 ustep: 0.9506709 iter: 9 value: -588.5049 mgc: 4.004794 ustep: 0.975026 iter: 10 value: -588.5144 mgc: 0.183636 ustep: 0.9874353 iter: 11 value: -588.5144 mgc: 0.02739312 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.5144 mgc: 2.361084e-05 ustep: 0.9968446 iter: 13 value: -588.5144 mgc: 1.120984e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.525233e-10 outer mgc: 0.02401492 iter: 1 value: 98586.04 mgc: 4273.698 ustep: 0.001528549 iter: 2 value: 1390.196 mgc: 1629.245 ustep: 0.03919275 iter: 3 value: 201.0044 mgc: 81.22767 ustep: 0.1980518 iter: 4 value: -233.5294 mgc: 16.04442 ustep: 0.4450856 iter: 5 value: -485.8668 mgc: 18.69676 ustep: 0.6671807 iter: 6 value: -567.1586 mgc: 16.37664 ustep: 0.8168296 iter: 7 value: -584.603 mgc: 17.12573 ustep: 0.9037959 iter: 8 value: -587.7217 mgc: 4.146052 ustep: 0.9506867 iter: 9 value: -588.1493 mgc: 3.987959 ustep: 0.9750342 iter: 10 value: -588.1587 mgc: 0.1832619 ustep: 0.9874394 iter: 11 value: -588.1587 mgc: 0.02722477 ustep: 0.9937005 iter: 12 value: -588.1587 mgc: 2.352148e-05 ustep: 0.9968456 iter: 13 value: -588.1587 mgc: 1.117832e-07 ustep: 0.9984217 iter: 14 mgc: 8.510678e-10 outer mgc: 0.008313936 iter: 1 value: 99000.46 mgc: 4290.827 ustep: 0.001521865 iter: 2 value: 1390.908 mgc: 1630.632 ustep: 0.03910719 iter: 3 value: 200.9369 mgc: 81.19364 ustep: 0.1978356 iter: 4 value: -233.656 mgc: 15.95629 ustep: 0.4448427 iter: 5 value: -486.1429 mgc: 18.68668 ustep: 0.6669986 iter: 6 value: -567.529 mgc: 16.39401 ustep: 0.8167181 iter: 7 value: -584.9977 mgc: 17.18312 ustep: 0.9037342 iter: 8 value: -588.1247 mgc: 4.162831 ustep: 0.9506543 iter: 9 value: -588.555 mgc: 4.007715 ustep: 0.9750175 iter: 10 value: -588.5645 mgc: 0.1845632 ustep: 0.987431 iter: 11 value: -588.5645 mgc: 0.02763036 ustep: 0.9936963 iter: 12 value: -588.5645 mgc: 2.394978e-05 ustep: 0.9968435 iter: 13 value: -588.5645 mgc: 1.124558e-07 ustep: 0.9984206 iter: 14 mgc: 8.563189e-10 outer mgc: 0.00830269 iter: 1 value: 98793.02 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525203 iter: 2 value: 1390.521 mgc: 1629.935 ustep: 0.03914994 iter: 3 value: 200.9619 mgc: 81.21434 ustep: 0.1979437 iter: 4 value: -233.5973 mgc: 16.00018 ustep: 0.4449641 iter: 5 value: -486.0096 mgc: 18.68168 ustep: 0.6670896 iter: 6 value: -567.3442 mgc: 16.38416 ustep: 0.8167738 iter: 7 value: -584.7999 mgc: 17.15841 ustep: 0.903765 iter: 8 value: -587.9219 mgc: 4.150234 ustep: 0.9506705 iter: 9 value: -588.3506 mgc: 3.99856 ustep: 0.9750258 iter: 10 value: -588.36 mgc: 0.1838684 ustep: 0.9874352 iter: 11 value: -588.36 mgc: 0.0273136 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.36 mgc: 2.358296e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.36 mgc: 1.121585e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.53078e-10 outer mgc: 0.03786867 iter: 1 value: 98793.05 mgc: 4282.254 ustep: 0.001525203 iter: 2 value: 1390.582 mgc: 1629.937 ustep: 0.03914994 iter: 3 value: 200.979 mgc: 81.207 ustep: 0.1979437 iter: 4 value: -233.5883 mgc: 16.00047 ustep: 0.4449641 iter: 5 value: -486.0001 mgc: 18.70177 ustep: 0.6670896 iter: 6 value: -567.3433 mgc: 16.38648 ustep: 0.8167739 iter: 7 value: -584.8008 mgc: 17.15039 ustep: 0.903765 iter: 8 value: -587.9245 mgc: 4.158641 ustep: 0.9506705 iter: 9 value: -588.3536 mgc: 3.997092 ustep: 0.9750258 iter: 10 value: -588.3631 mgc: 0.1839541 ustep: 0.9874352 iter: 11 value: -588.3631 mgc: 0.02754067 ustep: 0.9936984 iter: 12 value: -588.3631 mgc: 2.388755e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.3631 mgc: 1.120793e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.536265e-10 outer mgc: 0.03793525 iter: 1 value: 98783.31 mgc: 4282.253 ustep: 0.001525378 iter: 2 value: 1390.334 mgc: 1631.681 ustep: 0.03915218 iter: 3 value: 200.566 mgc: 81.2497 ustep: 0.1979493 iter: 4 value: -233.707 mgc: 16.01242 ustep: 0.4449704 iter: 5 value: -486.0278 mgc: 18.71567 ustep: 0.6670943 iter: 6 value: -567.4042 mgc: 16.38352 ustep: 0.8167768 iter: 7 value: -584.8718 mgc: 17.1502 ustep: 0.9037667 iter: 8 value: -587.9989 mgc: 4.159706 ustep: 0.9506714 iter: 9 value: -588.4288 mgc: 3.999294 ustep: 0.9750263 iter: 10 value: -588.4383 mgc: 0.1848229 ustep: 0.9874354 iter: 11 value: -588.4383 mgc: 0.02757069 ustep: 0.9936985 iter: 12 value: -588.4383 mgc: 2.392826e-05 ustep: 0.9968446 iter: 13 value: -588.4383 mgc: 1.12109e-07 ustep: 0.9984212 iter: 14 mgc: 8.508528e-10 outer mgc: 0.0742546 iter: 1 value: 98802.75 mgc: 4282.255 ustep: 0.001525029 iter: 2 value: 1390.771 mgc: 1628.196 ustep: 0.03914771 iter: 3 value: 201.3757 mgc: 81.17167 ustep: 0.197938 iter: 4 value: -233.4786 mgc: 15.98825 ustep: 0.4449578 iter: 5 value: -485.982 mgc: 18.66781 ustep: 0.6670848 iter: 6 value: -567.2833 mgc: 16.3871 ustep: 0.8167709 iter: 7 value: -584.7289 mgc: 17.1586 ustep: 0.9037634 iter: 8 value: -587.8475 mgc: 4.149164 ustep: 0.9506697 iter: 9 value: -588.2755 mgc: 3.996334 ustep: 0.9750254 iter: 10 value: -588.2849 mgc: 0.1830037 ustep: 0.987435 iter: 11 value: -588.2849 mgc: 0.02728321 ustep: 0.9936983 iter: 12 value: -588.2849 mgc: 2.354233e-05 ustep: 0.9968445 iter: 13 value: -588.2849 mgc: 1.121322e-07 ustep: 0.9984211 iter: 14 mgc: 8.571178e-10 outer mgc: 0.07416396 outer mgc: 8.768562